Only a few more days left before the 2012 Kentucky Derby happens! Yes, the moment we have all been waiting for will happen just a few more sleeps away. My observation for this year? The field looks the strongest it has been in quite a few years, and for the most part, evenly matched. So the competition this year would be very hard to predict. Which makes it more exciting! So buckle up and do your Kentucky derby betting today and be a part of the excitement. And whatever happens, here are some of the horses you need to avoid for your Kentucky derby betting. They might be some people’s favorites and look extremely good, but there are questions surrounding the horses. So it’s a risk you wouldn’t want to take.
1. Bodemeister is sitting at 9/2 right now, and he deserves it after his dominating win in the G1 Arkansas Derby. But just like two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, “Bode” is lightly raced with just four races and only two stakes starts. Bodemeister has a big chance to do big things, but his light schedule will be a big disadvantage, especially with more experienced horses in the race.
2. While Alpha showed talent a few weeks ago fighting Gemologist down the stretch in the G1 Wood Memorial to finish second, the horse is a question mark. Before settling on the Wood, the colt was supposed to go to multiple other preps depending on who ran there when Hansen moved on to the Blue Grass. While this could have been done just to get him the extra graded stakes earnings, it doesn’t give much confidence in the horse. Between this and his gate issues the last time he was at Churchill Downs, even though it seems to have subsided this year, Alpha is a wild card. The colt may be worth a bet at longer odds, but not at the low odds that he will probably be at going into the Derby after his second place in the Wood Memorial.
3. Dullahan has the bloodlines and the record to be a contender in this race. His half brother Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby in 2009, and Dullahan was fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But there is a big question mark around the horse’s ability to win away from Keeneland. The horse has done pretty well away from the track, placing at Gulfstream and Saratoga in two graded stakes on the turf. While his fourth place finish behind last year’s three best two-year-olds looks good, it should be noted that the colt was five lengths behind the trio. Dullahan is currently at 8/1 odds, but his form carrying from turf-like surfaces to dirt, even with his Juvenile result, makes him one to think hard about on Derby day.
4. Even though Hansen is currently at 14/1 odds on the Kentucky Derby website, as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and with his race record his odds will probably be much lower come Derby day. However, his questionable ability to go longer distances is a major issue. The colt showed the ability to rate in his G3 Gotham Stakes win, but he hasn’t shown that he can rate when…