Be Careful on MLB Betting With These Hot Starters


You know those great hot starters? Yes right. Those hot starters which once in your life, fooled you to put all your MLB betting on their team because they look like they are really good and will make you win huge money. Each MLB season has it. And today, I’m going to list out some of the hot starters today on MLB 2012. I didn’t tell you not to bet on them. I’m just telling you I’m not buying it and doubt that it will last. Here are they:


Edwin Encarnacion, DH, Toronto Blue Jays

Edwin Encarnacion has been on fire this season, as he finds himself sitting on nine home runs and a .931 OPS, after hitting a total of 17 home runs with a .787 OPS last year.Not surprisingly, Encarnacion has cooled off in May. He has two hits so far this month, and has gone hitless in each of Toronto’s last four games.


This is just the beginning of Encarnacion’s cool-down. The fact of the matter is that he was putting up numbers that weren’t sustainable, and they still look that way.


Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo was historically bad last season. This year, Arroyo looks completely refreshed, and he’s been mowing hitters down on a regular basis. A little too regular, I think. After his win on Monday against the Brewers, Arroyo has his ERA down to 2.75 and his WHIP down to 1.17. He’s helped himself by upping his strikeout rate this season, and decreasing his BB/9 to a razor-thin 0.92. Arroyo, however, remains hittable. Opponents are hitting him at a .275 clip this season, which isn’t far off from the .286 clip they hit him at last season, and it’s actually par for the course for hitters against Arroyo ever since the beginning of the 2007 season.


This suggests his early-season success is not sustainable. So does his 3.73 xFIP, which will likely climb into the 4.00s before long (also par for the course for Arroyo). He may not be historically bad again, but he’s not this good.

Wei-Yin Chen, SP, Baltimore Orioles


The quality of Baltimore’s starting pitching has been a huge surprise all season, and Wei-Yin Chen has had a lot to do with it. He boasts a 2-0 record in five starts, with a 2.76 ERA. His ERA may be 2.76, but his xFIP is 4.57, one of the highest marks in the league among qualified pitchers. That’s a huge gap, and it’s hard to imagine Chen maintaining it as long as he maintains a ground-ball percentage of 35.2. More and more hits are going to start coming.


There are a couple of things that have helped Chen get out to a hot start. He has unfamiliarity working for him, and his two best starts came against two weak-hitting clubs in the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics. Expect Chen’s numbers to level out as the season moves along and hitters get a grasp on his stuff.


Ted Lilly, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

It’s somewhat under the radar, but Ted Lilly is having an outstanding season for the Dodgers. Following his win against the San Francisco Giants on Monday, he has a 4-0 record with a 1.41 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP….

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